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31.
Recently, study in past trends of climate variables gained significant consideration because of its contribution in adaptions and mitigation strategies for potential future changes in climate, primarily in the area of water resource management. Future interannual and inter-seasonal variations in maximum and minimum temperature may bring significant changes in hydrological systems and affect regional water resources. The present study has been performed to observe past(1970-2010) as well as future(2011-2100)spatial and temporal variability in temperature(maximum and minimum) over selected stations of Sutlej basin located in North-Western Himalayan region in India. The generation of future time series of temperature data at different stations is done using statistical downscaling technique. The nonparametric test methods, modified Mann-Kendall test and Cumulative Sum chart are used for detecting monotonic trend and sequential shift in time series of maximum and minimum temperature. Sen’s slope estimator test is used to detect the magnitude of change over a period of time on annual and seasonal basis. The cooling experienced in annual TMax and TMin at Kasol in past(1970-2010) would be replaced by warming in future as increasing trends are detected in TMax during 2020 s and 2050 s and in TMin during 2020 s, 2050 s and 2080 s under A1 B and A2 scenarios. Similar results of warming are also predicted at Sunnifor annual TMin in future under both scenarios which witnessed cooling during 1970-2010. The rise in TMin at Rampur is predicted to be continued in future as increasing trends are obtained under both the scenarios. Seasonal trend analysis reveals large variability in trends of TMax and TMin over these stations for the future periods. 相似文献
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Pulakesh Das Mukunda Dev Behera Nitesh Patidar Bhabagrahi Sahoo Poonam Tripathi Priti Ranjan Behera S K Srivastava Partha Sarathi Roy Praveen Thakur S P Agrawal Y V N Krishnamurthy 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(2):19
As a catchment phenomenon, land use and land cover change (LULCC) has a great role in influencing the hydrological cycle. In this study, decadal LULC maps of 1985, 1995, 2005 and predicted-2025 of the Subarnarekha, Brahmani, Baitarani, Mahanadi and Nagavali River basins of eastern India were analyzed in the framework of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model to estimate their relative consequences. The model simulation showed a decrease in ET with 0.0276% during 1985–1995, but a slight increase with 0.0097% during 1995–2005. Conversely, runoff and base flow showed an overall increasing trend with 0.0319 and 0.0041% respectively during 1985–1995. In response to the predicted LULC in 2025, the VIC model simulation estimated reduction of ET with 0.0851% with an increase of runoff by 0.051%. Among the vegetation parameters, leaf area index (LAI) emerged as the most sensitive one to alter the simulated water balance. LULC alterations via deforestation, urbanization, cropland expansions led to reduced canopy cover for interception and transpiration that in turn contributed to overall decrease in ET and increase in runoff and base flow. This study reiterates changes in the hydrology due to LULCC, thereby providing useful inputs for integrated water resources management in the principle of sustained ecology. 相似文献
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The uncertainty in the specification of surface characteristics in soil-vegetation- atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) schemes within planetary boundary-layer (PBL) or mesoscale models is addressed. The hypothesis to be tested is whether the errors in the specification of the individual parameters are accumulative or whether they tend to balance each other in the overall sense for the system. A hierarchy of statistical applications is developed: classical one-at-a-time (OAT) approach, level 1; linear analysis of variance (ANOVA), level 1.5; fractional factorial (FF), or level 2; two-factor interaction (TFI) technique, or level 2.5; and a non-linear response surface methodology (RSM), or level 3. Using the First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE) observations for June 6, 1987 as the initial condition for a SVAT scheme dynamically coupled to a PBL model, the interactions between uncertainty errors are analyzed. A secondary objective addresses the temporal changes in the uncertainty pattern using data for morning, afternoon, and evening conditions. It is found that the outcome from the level 1 OAT-like studies can be considered as the limiting uncertainty values for the majority of mesoscale cases. From the higher-level analyses, it is concluded that for most of the moderate surface scenarios, the effective uncertainty from the individual parameters is balanced and thus lowered. However, for the extreme cases, such as near wilting or saturation soil moisture, the uncertainties add up synergistically and these effects can be even greater than those from the outcomes of the OAT-like studies. Thus, parameter uncertainty cannot be simply related to its deviation alone, but is also dependent on other parameter settings. Also, from the temporal changes in the interaction pattern studies, it is found that, for the morning case soil texture is the important parameter, for afternoon vegetation parameters are crucial, while for the evening case soil moisture is capable of propagating maximum uncertainty in the SVAT processes. Finally, a generic hypothesis is presented that an appropriate question for analysis has to be rephrased from the previous 'which parameters are significant?’ to 'what scenarios make a particular parameter significant?’ 相似文献
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Chandra M. Kishtawal Dev Niyogi Anil Kumar Monica Laureano Bozeman Olivia Kellner 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1527-1542
Using the HURDAT best track analysis of track and intensity of tropical cyclones that made landfall over the continental United States during the satellite era (1980?C2005), we analyze the role of land surface variables on the cyclone decay process. The land surface variables considered in the present study included soil parameters (soil heat capacity and its surrogate soil bulk density), roughness, topography and local gradients of topography. The sensitivity analysis was carried out using a data-adaptive genetic algorithm approach that automatically selects the most suitable variables by fitting optimum empirical functions that estimates cyclone intensity decay in terms of given observed variables. Analysis indicates that soil bulk density (soil heat capacity) has a dominant influence on cyclone decay process. The decayed inland cyclone intensities were found to be positively correlated with the cube of the soil bulk density (heat capacity). The impact of the changes in soil bulk density (heat capacity) on the decayed cyclone intensity is higher for higher intensity cyclones. Since soil bulk density is closely related to the soil heat capacity and inversely proportional to the thermal diffusivity, the observed relationship can also be viewed as the influence of cooling rate of the land surface, as well as the transfer of heat and moisture underneath a land-falling storm. The optimized prediction function obtained by statistical model processes in the present study that predicts inland intensity changes during 6-h interval showed high fitness index and small errors. The performance of the prediction function was tested on inland tracks of eighteen hurricanes and tropical storms that made landfall over the United States between 2001 and 2010. The mean error of intensity prediction for these cyclones varied from 1.3 to 15.8 knots (0.67?C8.12?m?s?1). Results from the data-driven analysis thus indicate that soil heat flux feedback should be an important consideration for the inland decay of tropical cyclones. Experiments were also undertaken using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Advanced Research Version (ARW ver 3.3) to assess the sensitivity of the soil parameters (roughness, heat capacity and bulk density) on the post-landfall structure of select storms. The model was run with 1-km grid spacing, limited area single domain with boundary conditions from the North American Regional Reanalysis. Of different experiments, only the surface roughness change and soil bulk density (heat capacity) change experiments showed some sensitivity to the intensity change. The WRF results thus have a low sensitivity to the land parameters (with only the roughness length showing some impact). This calls for reassessing the land surface response on post-landfall characteristics with more detailed land surface representation within the mesoscale and hurricane modeling systems. 相似文献
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Tomáš Laburda Josef Krása David Zumr Jan Devátý Michal Vrána Nives Zambon Lisbeth Lolk Johannsen Andreas Klik Peter Strauss Tomáš Dostál 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(5):1067-1082
An understanding of splash erosion is the basis to describe the impact of rain characteristics on soil disturbance. In typical splash cup experiments, splashed soil is collected, filtered, and weighed. As a way to collect additional data, our experiments have been supplemented by a photogrammetric approach. A total of three soils were tested across three sites, one in the Czech Republic and two in Austria, all equipped with rain gauges and disdrometers to measure rainfall parameters. The structure from motion multiview stereo (SfM-MVS) photogrammetric method was used to measure the raindrops impact on the soil surface. The images were processed using Agisoft PhotoScan, resulting in orthophotos and digital elevation models (DEMs) with a resolution of 0.1 mm/pix. The surface statistics included the mean surface height (whose standard deviation was used as a measure of surface roughness), slope, and other parameters. These parameters were evaluated depending on soil texture and rainfall parameters. The results show a linear correlation between consolidation and splash erosion with a coefficient of determination (R2) of approximately 0.65 for all three soils. When comparing the change in soil volume with rainfall parameters, the best correlation was found with the maximum 30-minintensity (I30), resulting in R2 values of 0.48 (soil A, silt loam, 26% clay), 0.59 (soil B, silt loam, 18% clay), and 0.68 (soil C, loamy sand, 12% clay). The initial increase in the sample volume for the lowest splashed mass corresponds with the increase in the clay content of each of the soils. Soil A swells the most. Soil B swells less. Soil C does not swell at all and consolidates the most. We derived the relationship between the photogrammetrically measured change in surface height and the splash erosion (measured by weight) by accounting for the effect of the clay content. 相似文献
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Heavy off-season rains in the tropics pose significant natural hazards largely because they are unexpected and the popular
infrastructure is ill-prepared. One such event was observed from January 9 to 11, 2002 in Senegal (14.00° N, 14.00°␣W), West
Africa. This tropical country is characterized by a long dry season from November to April or May. During this period, although
the rain-bearing monsoonal flow does not reach Senegal, the region can occasionally experience off-season rains. We conducted
a numerical simulation of the January 9–11, 2002 heavy off-season rain using the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Pennsylvania State
University Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The objective was to delineate the
meteorological set-up that led to the heavy rains and flooding. A secondary objective was to test the model’s performance
in Senegal using relatively simpler (default) model configurations and local/regional observations. The model simulations
for both MM5 and WRF agree satisfactorily with the observations, particularly as regards the wind patterns, the intensification
of the rainfall, and the associated drop in temperatures. This situation provided the environment for heavy rainfall accompanied
by a cold wave. The results suggest that off-the-shelf weather forecast models can be applied with relatively simple physical
options and modest computational resources to simulate local impacts of severe weather episodes. In addition, these models
could become part of regional hazard mitigation planning and infrastructure. 相似文献
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Kripamoy Sarkar Ashok Kumar Singh Anurag Niyogi Prasanta Kumar Behera A. K. Verma T. N. Singh 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2016,88(3):387-393
The present paper demonstrates the assessment of slope stability analysis between Rampur to Jhakri road section along National Highway (NH-22), Himachal Pradesh, India. The different types of slope failures have affected most part of slopes which causes considerable loss of life and property, inconveniences such as disruption of traffic along highways. The poorly designed rock slopes for road widening or construction purposes may weaken the stability of the slopes. A detail field investigation has been carried out to collect the representative rock samples for determination of physico-mechanical properties of rock and joint data for kinematic analysis. The rocks exposed in the area are highly jointed quartzite and quartz-mica schist of Rampur-Larji Group of Palaeoproterozoic age. The continuous slope mass rating (CSMR) technique has been applied for the assessment of slope stability analysis at five vulnerable locations and the results shows slopes are partially stable to unstable. Kinematic analysis mainly shows wedge type of failure along with few toppling and planar failures. The existing slope required immediate treatment to prevent the failure for its long term stability. 相似文献